Will Colorado go Blue? The various polls taken so far seem ambiguous. Although they average out in favor of Obama by 4.4 points, the most recent poll puts Obama up by only 1 point. So, at this point it looks like a tight race. However, I heard a bit of news from the local Obama Campaign yesterday.
According to the local campaign, Obama is within 2,000 to 10,000 votes of winning El Paso County. If that’s so, then it’s striking news for at least two reasons. First, El Paso County is a conservative bastion. Obama simply should not be doing that well in the County.
Second, and more importantly, it would be difficult for McCain to take Colorado without taking El Paso County. El Paso County is not only a conservative bastion, but the largest single conservative county in the State. A solid conservative turn-out by El Paso is needed to offset the liberal vote from Denver and elsewhere. I recall the conventional wisdom is a conservative candidate has to win El Paso by at least 15 points to offset those other places. But if the news from the local Obama Campaign is accurate, the County is not currently giving McCain that kind of margin.
In the grand scheme of things, Colorado might or might not be a key state this election. It depends on how the Eastern elections go in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. But there are one or two scenarios in which Colorado becomes the key state sealing the election for Obama — or not — as the case may be.