Still a Tight Race for Obama?

I suck when it comes to making electoral predictions.  Yet, I’m like a gambler who seldom wins, but still wants to play the game.  So, tonight, I’ve been looking at the state by state polls for clues to who might win the presidency.

At this point many people are predicting an Obama landslide because he’s ahead of McCain in so many of the key states.   However, it seems that a lot of folks in those states are still undecided.  So, I’m wondering what would happen if come election day, those undecided folks broke heavily for McCain?

Near as I can puzzle it out, it would then become a very tight race.  Obama would loose any chance of a landslide.  Yet, assuming the election were held today, and there were no significant fraud, Obama would still win — even with all the undecideds voting for McCain.

Obama’s margin of victory would be quite narrow, though.  He needs 270 electoral votes to win, and that plus 3 more electoral votes might be all he would get.  On the other hand, I think he’d pick up at least one more state (Virginia), making the grand total 286.

Of course, that assumes (1) the undecideds vote for McCain, (2) the election is held today, and (3) there is no significant fraud.

The good news is: Obama is trending ahead in some of the states I gave to McCain tonight.  If those trends continue, he might be far enough ahead by election day to win those states even if all the undecideds in them vote McCain.

Well, that’s my guess.  Tell me yours!

Further Reading:

Why Obama has to Stay above 50 Percent

2 thoughts on “Still a Tight Race for Obama?

  1. I’d say that Obama has a good chance of winning, but victory is far from guaranteed. If the favorable polls make Democratic voters overconfident, or if the polls are just outright wrong (for whatever bizarre reason) then it gets to be a little more of a tossup. I doubt that most undecideds will vote for McCain, but it is hard to say. Fingers crossed ’til election day, I guess.

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  2. What concerns me about the polls this election is that none of the pollsters have really measured anything quite like this election year. There are several factors in play they don’t know the best way to handle. Such as the youth vote. Or the race issue. Or the huge numbers of newly registered voters. So, we really don’t know for sure where Obama and McCain are at this point.

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