The National Association of Business Economics (NABE) released a report today predicting the recession will end in the second half of this year.
According to the report, the first and second quarters of the year will see an overall sharp contraction of the economy. But during the third and fourth quarters, the economy will begin expanding again at a modest rate. Employment, however, will lag behind the expansion and unemployment is expected to peak rather high at 9% by the end of the year. However:
“The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%.”
The report represents the consensus opinion of 47 professional macroeconomic forecasters.
I don’t know what NABE’s track record is when it comes to forecasting the economy, but I’m going to play it conservative and wait until I see an actual upturn before I go dancing in the street.