Economic Crisis, Economics, News and Current Events, Work

Will the Recession End Soon?

The National Association of Business Economics (NABE) released a report today predicting the recession will end in the second half of this year.

According to the report, the first and second quarters of the year will see an overall sharp contraction of the economy.  But during the third and fourth quarters, the economy will begin expanding again at a modest rate.  Employment, however, will lag behind the expansion and unemployment is expected to peak rather high at 9% by the end of the year.  However:

“The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1%.”

The report represents the consensus opinion of 47 professional macroeconomic forecasters.

I don’t know what NABE’s track record is when it comes to forecasting the economy, but I’m going to play it conservative and wait until I see an actual upturn before I go dancing in the street.

6 thoughts on “Will the Recession End Soon?”

  1. I hope the economy does improve. But if it does, cons will say; “See! Stimulus wasn’t needed!” And if it doesn’t (given the watered-down version we ended up with) they’ll say; “See! Stimulus didn’t work!”

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  2. The recession will end in the second half of this year and the actual depression will begin? Or maybe the revolution? Or the reinflating of the illusion bubble that is market driven capitalism? Yeah, let’s get the recession over and start the whole cycle of economically enslaving 99.9% of the world’s population all over again.

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  3. Unfortunately, Paul, I’ve begun to suspect such talk of enslaving the world’s population is more realistic than cynical. Did you read the news a while back of the American corporations that, in violation of American law, are helping China spy on its population? The Chinese goal of a consumer society without political liberty seems to be supported by the corporations.

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